# Baseline 2026-09-22 — the independent TV pool's share of presidential-event footage, 4–17 September 2026

The first of the two baselines `PRED-2026-09-22-PRESS-ACCESS` owes. Without it P2 and P3 have no denominator and can never lose.

**Recorded by:** Claude, 2026-09-22, from the public pool-report archive at pool.pp.tools (reports 8878–9068) and the three White House press-rotation announcements covering the window (reports 8825, 8912, 9007). **Ratification:** not yet; the analyst has not reviewed the coding. **Provenance:** the enumeration rule, the coding rule and every coded row are Claude's; the schedule designations and rotation assignments are the White House's own text as republished in the archive; the realized-coverage codes rest on pool-report titles and, where a title was ambiguous, on the report body (two cases, noted).

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## §1 — Enumeration rule (fixed before coding)

**Frame:** every item on the President's daily guidance for 4–17 September 2026 inclusive, as published in the archived "Daily Guidance and Press Schedule" and "Weekend Guidance" reports (8878, 8913, 8924, 8959, 9012, 9025, 9034, 9053), **excluding** Executive Time and intelligence briefings (never covered by any press by construction) and **excluding** Vice-Presidential, First Lady and press-secretary items (not presidential-event footage). Unscheduled items the pool was demonstrably admitted to are appended and marked, since footage of them exists and the metric is about footage.

**Realized-coverage code**, one per item, from the pool reports of that day:

- `closed` — designated closed and no pool report evidences admission.
- `pool` — designated for a pool (Restricted, In-Town Travel, Out-of-Town Travel, White House Press Pool) and pool reports evidence the pool's presence.
- `pool (admitted to a closed item)` — designated Closed Press but pool reports evidence the pool being brought in (an Oval "spray").
- `pool (movement)` — a residence arrival or departure labelled Closed Press whose airport and motorcade legs the pool covered.
- `open + pool` — designated Pre-Credentialed Media: credentialed outlets may attend on their own credentials, and the pool was also present.

**TV composition** per day from the rotation announcements: the **primary TV** slot (the five-network rotation: ABC, CBS, CNN, FOX, NBC) and the **secondary TV** slot (selected by the White House since it took over pool composition in February 2025).

A designation is what the schedule *said*; the code is what the record *shows*. Two items were checked against the report body because the title was ambiguous: 4 Sept "Signs executive orders" (pool admitted: pooler David Smith, Guardian, reports POTUS at the Resolute desk with farmers and ranchers, Q&A) and 17 Sept "executive orders" (not admitted: pooler John T. Bennett, Roll Call, an advisory pointing to the website). The second is why realized coding is required — a title alone would have miscoded it.

## §2 — Counts

| Quantity | Value |
|---|---|
| Schedule items in frame (plus 2 unscheduled pooled) | **63** |
| Designated Closed Press | 32 |
| Designated for a pool (Restricted / Travel / WH Press Pool) | 19 |
| Designated Pre-Credentialed Media (open) | 10 |
| Closed-designated items the pool was nonetheless admitted to or covered as movement | 3 |
| Unscheduled items the pool covered | 2 |
| **Items with any press footage possible ("covered")** | **34** |
| Of covered: pool-only (no independent credentialed access) | **24** (70.6%) |
| Of covered: open (networks may attend on own credentials) | 10 (29.4%) |
| Realized closed (no press footage of the item) | 29 of 63 (46.0%) |
| Covered items with a five-network camera present | **34 of 34 — 100%** |
| Covered items with a White-House-selected secondary TV outlet also present | 34 of 34 — 100% |

## §3 — The baseline values the forecast uses

**B1 (for P2 and P3): five-network presence at covered presidential items = 34 / 34 = 1.00.** Every day's primary TV slot was filled by one of ABC, CBS, CNN, FOX or NBC, and the pool attended every covered item.

**B2 (for P2): covered items per fortnight = 34, of which pool-only = 24.** The suspension of 21 September removes five-network video from the pool-only class outright; open items remain coverable by networks on their own credentials. Whether they are, in fact, covered is what T+365 measures. A like-for-like re-run of this enumeration at T+365 yields the comparison.

**B3 (for P3): the substitute was already seated.** On every one of the fourteen days a second, White-House-selected TV outlet sat in the pool beside the network on duty. The fourteen assignments: RAV, RSBN, OAN, Univision, Lindell TV, Scripps, Newsmax, FOX 5 DC, Sinclair, Bloomberg TV, NewsNation, CBN, GB News, Univision. When the five networks withdrew, the secondary slot became the only TV in the pool, which is why Real America's Voice was reported alone in the traveling pool. P3's "share of footage from administration feeds or single-outlet friendly pools" therefore has a structural baseline of **0 of 34 items where the secondary slot was the *sole* TV source**, and the mechanism by which that number rises was in place before the ban. Which of the fourteen outlets count as "friendly" is a characterization and is tagged **contested**; the list is recorded so the classification can be argued rather than assumed. Two of them are on the record elsewhere in this register: OAN signed the Pentagon pledge the other outlets refused (AX-016); RAV was the sole traveling-pool station after 21 September (AX-019).

**B4 (opacity floor, context not forecast):** 29 of 63 scheduled items — 46% — produced no press footage at all before the ban. Three whole days (14, 15, 17 Sept apart from the dinner) had no covered presidential item. The ban did not create opacity; it removed the independent camera from the covered remainder.

## §4 — What this does not establish

- It counts **presence**, not **airtime**. An item-level share is not a minutes-of-footage share. Minutes would need broadcast logs; none were located. If P3 is later scored on airtime rather than items, the baseline must be re-run on the same unit.
- It is one fortnight. A fortnight with a foreign trip and a two-day party convention is heavier on travel-pool and open items than a Washington fortnight would be. The T+365 comparison should use the same fourteen calendar days a year on, and also a second window chosen before scoring.
- "Covered" means the pool was present. It does not establish that any network used the footage.
- Secondary-slot classification is contested and stated as such.

## §5 — The rows

| Date | Item | Designation | Realized | Primary TV | Secondary TV | Evidence (archive report numbers) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-04 | Policy meeting, Oval Office | Closed Press | closed | ABC | RAV | no pool report |
| 09-04 | Signs executive orders, Oval Office | Closed Press | pool (admitted to a closed item) | ABC | RAV | in-town #2–#8: POTUS speaking, gray wolves, takes questions (8881–8891) |
| 09-04 | Departs White House for Bedminster | Restricted Pool | pool | ABC | RAV | out-of-town 1–5 (8887–8896) |
| 09-04 | Arrives Bedminster (airport/M1 movement) | Closed Press | pool (movement) | ABC | RAV | out-of-town 6–9: wheels down, deplanes, motorcade, M1 arrival (8897–8900) |
| 09-07 | Departs Bedminster (movement) | Closed Press | pool (movement) | FOX | Univision | out-of-town 1–4: vans, Morristown, wheels up (8903–8906) |
| 09-07 | Arrives White House | Restricted Pool | pool | FOX | Univision | out-of-town 5–7 (8908–8910) |
| 09-08 | Steel Across America, the Ellipse | Pre-Credentialed Media | open + pool | NBC | Lindell TV | in-town #3–#5: event begins, POTUS speaking, remarks conclude (8916–8918) |
| 09-08 | Signs executive orders, Oval Office | Closed Press | closed | NBC | Lindell TV | no pool report |
| 09-08 | Policy meeting 1, Oval Office | Closed Press | closed | NBC | Lindell TV | no pool report |
| 09-08 | Policy meeting 2, Oval Office | Closed Press | closed | NBC | Lindell TV | no pool report |
| 09-08 | Policy meeting 3, Oval Office | Closed Press | closed | NBC | Lindell TV | no pool report |
| 09-08 | [unscheduled] Homan gaggle | — | pool (admitted to a closed item) | NBC | Lindell TV | in-town #7 (8922) |
| 09-09 | Departs for Dallas | Restricted Pool | pool | ABC | Scripps | in-town #1–#2, out-of-town #1–#5 (8925–8932) |
| 09-09 | MAGA Inc. meeting, Dallas | Closed Press | closed | ABC | Scripps | out-of-town #8 is a hold/color note, no admission (8936) |
| 09-09 | RNC Midterm Convention, Dallas | Pre-Credentialed Media | open + pool | ABC | Scripps | out-of-town #9–#11 (8937–8939) |
| 09-09 | Remarks, Dallas | Pre-Credentialed Media | open + pool | ABC | Scripps | out-of-town #12–#17 (8940–8945) |
| 09-10 | National Medal of Honor Museum tour, Arlington | Out-of-Town Travel Pool | pool | CBS | Newsmax | out-of-town #2–#3 (8948–8950) |
| 09-10 | Remarks, Arlington | Pre-Credentialed Media | open + pool | CBS | Newsmax | out-of-town #4–#6 (8951–8953) |
| 09-10 | RNC roundtable, Dallas | Closed Press | closed | CBS | Newsmax | no admission evidence (8955) |
| 09-10 | RNC Midterm Convention, Dallas | Pre-Credentialed Media | open + pool | CBS | Newsmax | out-of-town #9–#11 (8937 series, day 2: 8956–8958) |
| 09-10 | Closing remarks, Dallas | Pre-Credentialed Media | open + pool | CBS | Newsmax | out-of-town #12–#15 (8961–8964) |
| 09-10 | Departs Dallas for White House | Out-of-Town Travel Pool | pool | CBS | Newsmax | out-of-town #16–#20 (8965–8969) |
| 09-10 | Arrives White House | Restricted Pool | pool | CBS | Newsmax | out-of-town #21, in-town report 1 (8970–8971) |
| 09-11 | Departs for the Pentagon | In-Town Travel Pool | pool | CNN | FOX 5 DC | in-town #1 rolling (8972) |
| 09-11 | 9/11 observance ceremony, Pentagon | Pre-Credentialed Media | open + pool | CNN | FOX 5 DC | in-town #2–#4 (8973–8975) |
| 09-11 | Wreath laying, Pentagon | Closed Press | closed | CNN | FOX 5 DC | no admission evidence |
| 09-11 | Arrives White House | In-Town Travel Pool | pool | CNN | FOX 5 DC | in-town #5–#6 (8976–8977) |
| 09-11 | Signing time, Oval Office | Closed Press | closed | CNN | FOX 5 DC | no pool report |
| 09-11 | Policy meeting, Oval Office | Closed Press | closed | CNN | FOX 5 DC | no pool report |
| 09-11 | Departs for Dublin | Restricted Pool | pool | CNN | FOX 5 DC | in-town #8–#9, travel note 1 (8982–8984) |
| 09-12 | Arrives Dublin | Pre-Credentialed Media | open + pool | FOX | Sinclair | travel 3–4 (8986–8987) |
| 09-12 | Arrival ceremony, Áras an Uachtaráin | Pre-Credentialed Media | open + pool | FOX | Sinclair | travel 5–6 (8988–8989) |
| 09-12 | Courtesy call, President of Ireland | Closed Press | closed | FOX | Sinclair | no admission evidence |
| 09-12 | Bilateral with the Taoiseach, Farmleigh | Out-of-Town Travel Pool | pool | FOX | Sinclair | travel 8–9 incl. questions (8991–8992) |
| 09-12 | Remarks to embassy and business leaders, Deerfield | Out-of-Town Travel Pool | pool | FOX | Sinclair | travel 10–11b (8993–8995) |
| 09-12 | Amgen Irish Open, Doonbeg | Out-of-Town Travel Pool | pool | FOX | Sinclair | travel 13–16 (8997–9000) |
| 09-13 | Irish Open final round, Doonbeg | Out-of-Town Travel Pool | pool | NBC | Bloomberg TV | travel 17–20 incl. gaggle and trophy (9001–9004) |
| 09-13 | Arrives White House from Ireland | Restricted Pool | pool | NBC | Bloomberg TV | travel 21–24, in-town #1 (9005–9010) |
| 09-14 | Policy meeting 1, Oval Office | Closed Press | closed | ABC | NewsNation | lids only (9011, 9015, 9023) |
| 09-14 | Policy meeting 2, Oval Office | Closed Press | closed | ABC | NewsNation | lids only (9011, 9015, 9023) |
| 09-14 | Policy meeting 3, Oval Office | Closed Press | closed | ABC | NewsNation | lids only (9011, 9015, 9023) |
| 09-14 | Policy meeting 4, Oval Office | Closed Press | closed | ABC | NewsNation | lids only (9011, 9015, 9023) |
| 09-14 | Policy meeting 5, Oval Office | Closed Press | closed | ABC | NewsNation | lids only (9011, 9015, 9023) |
| 09-15 | Photo opportunity, Rose Garden | Closed Press | closed | CBS | CBN | no pool report |
| 09-15 | Ambassador credentialing, Oval Office | Closed Press | closed | CBS | CBN | in-town #5 'ambassadors leaving' — departures seen, event not admitted (9032) |
| 09-15 | Policy meeting 1, Oval Office | Closed Press | closed | CBS | CBN | no pool report |
| 09-15 | Policy meeting 2, Oval Office | Closed Press | closed | CBS | CBN | no pool report |
| 09-16 | Policy meeting 1, Oval Office | Closed Press | closed | CNN | GB News | no pool report |
| 09-16 | Policy meeting 2, Oval Office | Closed Press | closed | CNN | GB News | no pool report |
| 09-16 | Photo opportunity 1, Oval Office | Closed Press | closed | CNN | GB News | no pool report |
| 09-16 | Photo opportunity 2, Oval Office | Closed Press | closed | CNN | GB News | no pool report |
| 09-16 | Policy meeting 3, Oval Office | Closed Press | closed | CNN | GB News | no pool report |
| 09-16 | Signing time, Oval Office | Closed Press | closed | CNN | GB News | no pool report |
| 09-16 | Departs for Gastonia | Restricted Pool | pool | CNN | GB News | in-town #3–#4, out-of-town #1 (9038–9040) |
| 09-16 | Arrives Gastonia | Out-of-Town Travel Pool | pool | CNN | GB News | out-of-town #2–#4 incl. gaggle (9042–9044) |
| 09-16 | Rally remarks, Gastonia | Pre-Credentialed Media | open + pool | CNN | GB News | out-of-town #5–#9 (9045–9049) |
| 09-16 | Departs Gastonia | Out-of-Town Travel Pool | pool | CNN | GB News | out-of-town #10–#12 (9050–9052) |
| 09-16 | Arrives White House | Restricted Pool | pool | CNN | GB News | out-of-town #13–#14, in-town #5–#6 (9054–9057) |
| 09-17 | Policy meeting, Oval Office | Closed Press | closed | FOX | Univision | no pool report |
| 09-17 | Signs executive orders, Oval Office | Closed Press | closed | FOX | Univision | in-town #5 is an advisory pointing to the website, not an admission (9063) |
| 09-17 | Tele-rally, Oval Office | Closed Press | closed | FOX | Univision | no pool report |
| 09-17 | [unscheduled] Hunters event, Rose Garden | — | pool (admitted to a closed item) | FOX | Univision | in-town #3 (9061) |
| 09-17 | Rose Garden dinner | White House Press Pool | pool | FOX | Univision | in-town #6–#8 (9064–9067) |

Machine-readable rows: `BASELINE-2026-09-22-pool-footage-share.json`.